Social Security Disability Benefits Running at an Annual Deficit of $51 Billion

Social Security Disability Insurance At the end of FY 2014, the Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund had a balance of $70 billion. In FY 2015, CBO estimates that expenditures from the DI trust fund will total $148 billion while payroll tax revenues into the trust fund will total $115 billion. By FY 2025, expenditures on DI will total $221 billion and the program will be running an annual deficit of $51 billion. Given the cash flow deficit, CBO expects the DI trust fund to be insolvent in FY 2017.

CBO projects that the government will collect $3.2 trillion in revenue and spend $3.7 trillion this year, resulting in a deficit of $468 billion in FY 2015 ($15 billion less than recorded in the prior year). Based on current law, CBO projects that the country’s fiscal situation will remain relatively stable for the next few years. After FY 2019, however, CBO projects steadily increasing levels of deficits, debt, and interest payments. By the last year of the budget window, FY 2025, deficits will again surpass the $1 trillion mark, debt held by the public will reach $21.6 trillion, and a single year’s interest payments will total $827 billion.

According to CBO, federal outlays will total $3.7 trillion in FY 2015, or 20.3 percent of GDP– slightly higher than the 20.1 percent 50-year historical average. Federal outlays are expected to grow to reach $6.1 trillion, or 22.3 percent of GDP by FY 2025, while revenues are expected to remain steady at about 18 percent of GDP. Spending is projected to increase by 2 percentage points of GDP over the budget window. Mandatory spending (primarily Social Security and health care spending) will account for 1.7 percentage points of the increase; net interest costs will contribute another 1.7 percentage points; and discretionary spending will account for a reduction of 1.4 percentage points.

CBO projects federal revenues will total $3.2 trillion in FY 2015, or 17.7 percent of GDP–slightly above the 50-year historical average of 17.4 percent. Under current law, total revenues will rise significantly in 2016 to $3.5 billion (18.4 percent of GDP) due mainly to the expiration of business tax provisions that were allowed to lapse at the end of calendar year 2014. After FY 2016, revenue collections will remain steady at approximately 18.1 percent of GDP throughout the duration of the forecast period. In total, over the 10-year budget horizon (FY 2016-2025), CBO expects the federal government will collect $41.7 trillion in revenue.